The 2025/26 elite European football season is well underway, and as we get deeper into fall, the championship contenders across the continent have begun to flex their muscles. As such, now is the time when punters determine which teams can be trusted on a matchday, and which others need to be looked at with an air of caution. One team that falls into the latter category is reigning Premier League champions Liverpool.
Liverpool Aren't To Be Trusted
The Reds were looking imperious throughout their first five games of the campaign, winning each of them and amassing a hefty lead at the Premier League's summit. That prompted the bookies to install Arne Slot's men as a 1.80 betting favorite to retain the title they won so impressively last season. However, since then, alarm bells have started to sound around Anfield.
Liverpool lost away at Crystal Palace on matchday six, before following that up with a heartbreaking last-gasp defeat away at Chelsea a week later. That defeat has seen the bookies push them all the way out to 3.00 to claim the title again this term. And while that might not sound like much of a change, the use of a certain popular betting tool shows just how far the mighty Reds have fallen in the eyes of odds makers.
A no-vig calculator calculates a selection's true chance of cashing, at least in the eyes of the bookmakers. Using the calculator tool at Thunderpick shows that Liverpool had a 50% chance of winning the title. Now, however, the calculator shows their chances plummeting to just 37.5%.
As such, it's safe to say that the Merseysiders aren't a team that can be trusted to secure results and, in turn, help you cash your tickets, at least for the next few weeks and months anyway. Luckily, we've got three teams for you that can.
Bayern Munich
In Germany, dominance is a dynasty, and that dynasty wears Bavarian red. Every bookmaker in Europe knows the drill: Bayern Munich begin as favorites and, more often than not, prove the market right. The current campaign is no different—except perhaps for the sheer scale of their attacking threat.
Harry Kane’s decision to trade North London for Munich two years ago propelled Bayern into another stratosphere, and the England captain is in scintillating form in 2025/26. The prolific former Spurs man has bagged a whopping 18 goals in just ten games so far this term, scoring at almost two goals a game. The Three Lions talisman has Robert Lewandowski's single-season scoring record of 41 firmly in his sights, and he isn't the only attacker to be feared.
Michael Olise’s arrival on the right-hand side last summer has injected a whiplash unpredictability; his dribbling and vision complement new signing Luis Diaz’s relentless energy and newfound goalscoring ability. Between those two, Serge Gnabry has stepped seamlessly into the attacking midfield role in the absence of the injured Jamal Musiala, ensuring goals and chances aplenty from all four players.
What seals Bayern’s case as the punter’s pick isn’t merely talent. It’s the aura of inevitability. The Bundesliga doesn't have a traditional 'Big Six' like England. Instead, it's the Bavarians head and shoulders clear of Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen, RB Leipzig, and Eintracht Frankfurt, who themselves are then well ahead of the rest of the division. Expect Bayern to pile up the wins this term, even against those four sides, with punters quite easily able to back Vincent Kompany's men with hefty handicaps every week.
Paris Saint-Germain
For years, Paris Saint-Germain assembled squads of galáctico ambition but fell agonizingly short of the continent’s highest peak. Now, at last, the dam has burst. That 5-0 Champions League final evisceration of Inter Milan back in May wasn’t a breakthrough—it was a coronation. This, at long last, is PSG’s era.
The reigning European champions' firepower borders on the absurd. Last season, they outscored Ligue 1’s second-best attack by a margin of 34 goals, primarily thanks to the devastating attacking trident of Ousmane Dembele, Desire Doue, and Kvicha Kvaratskhelia. But if that wasn't bad enough, the Parisians confirmed that they have strength in depth across the board.
Even with all three of their fearsome attack injured for the recent trip to Spanish champions Barcelona, the French heavyweights still managed to leave Catalonia with a 2-1 victory. That proves the character that Luis Enrique has instilled throughout his squad. PSG’s unparalleled ability to shut the door, with the fewest goals conceded for three consecutive campaigns, and a relentless, suffocating high press, is something that no team, either in France or Europe, has been able to live with for the past 18 months. We can't see that changing any time soon.
Arsenal
North London, meanwhile, is alive with possibility. Arsenal—the resident nearly men in the last three years, finishing as Premier League runners-up on each occasion—have shaken off their underdog skin. They are not just in the chase; they are leading it. The cold data makes for warm reading at the Emirates: four stoppage-time winners in the last six, a points-per-game trajectory their fanbase hasn’t witnessed since the Invincibles, and a defensive duo in William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães that simply refuse to be breached.
The signings of Viktor Gyokeres, Eberechi Eze, and Noni Madueke have unleashed new tactical dimensions. Mikel Arteta’s fluid rotations have opponents second-guessing, while seasoned superstars like Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka provide the consistency required by champions.
With their form improving and main title rival Liverpool's declining, the bookies now make the Gunners title favorites. Plus, with their newfound mettle, the games that have so often been the problem in recent years, namely against lowly opposition at home, are no longer a problem. Arsenal is a team you can bank on at least up until the New Year. After that, we will find out if their bottling nature has been left in the rearview mirror as well.
