With the Ashes series already decided, England head into the iconic Boxing Day Test searching not for silverware, but for pride and momentum. The visitors are still chasing their first Test victory on Australian soil this summer, and circumstances may finally present them with an opening.
Australia will be without skipper Pat Cummins and off-spin spearhead Nathan Lyon, a rare weakening of an otherwise dominant home side. Their absence offers England a glimmer of opportunity to break a long-standing winless run Down Under. However, the challenge for Ben Stokes’ men lies in turning promise into performance — something they have consistently failed to do throughout the series whenever Australia have shown vulnerability.
As the focus shifts to Melbourne, the question remains: can England seize this moment, or will Australia’s depth once again prove too strong even without two of their biggest match-winners?
Read The Betting Professionals’ expert analysis for the 4th Test of Ashes 2025 between Australia vs England, including top cricket betting sites and predictions.
Australia vs England (AUS vs ENG) Match Details, 4th Test - Ashes 2025
Series | Ashes 2025 |
Series Match No | 4th Test |
Format | Test |
Match Start Date | 26th December 2025 |
Match Time | `10:30 AM (Local)/05:00 AM IST |
Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground |
Australia vs England (AUS vs ENG) Match Preview, 4th Test Match - Ashes 2025
Australia Preview
Australia are set to ring in changes for the Boxing Day Test despite already securing the Ashes 3–0. Captain Pat Cummins has been ruled out for the rest of the series to manage his workload after a match-winning return in Adelaide.
Jhye Richardson has been added to the squad, joining Michael Neser and Brendan Doggett in contention for the final pace spot, assuming Mitchell Starc and Scott Boland recover fully from the third Test. Richardson impressed against England Lions earlier this month and is pushing for his first Test since the 2021–22 Ashes.
Selection chief George Bailey and his panel face several calls. Nathan Lyon’s hamstring injury and Steve Smith’s expected return from an inner-ear issue mean at least three changes are likely. Smith is set to resume at No.4, while Usman Khawaja’s spot remains under scrutiny despite scores of 82 and 40.
Andrew McDonald has backed Alex Carey to stay at No.6 and praised the Travis Head–Jake Weatherald opening pairing, leaving Cameron Green and Josh Inglis under pressure in a squeezed middle order.
Lyon’s absence has also reopened the spinner debate at the MCG, with Todd Murphy in contention and Beau Webster offering an all-round alternative. If a spinner is picked, the final fast-bowling spot will be a shootout between Neser, Doggett and Richardson, with Starc and Boland expected to lead the attack.
Australia Predicted XI
Jake Weatherald, Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith (c), Usman Khawaja, Alex Carey (wk), Cameron Green, Michael Neser, Mitchell Starc, Todd Murphy, Scott Boland
England Preview
With the Ashes now out of reach, England are playing for pride in the remaining Tests, but their room for manoeuvre is limited. A lean 16-man touring squad — with Jacob Bethell the only reserve batter — has left Ben Stokes’ side short on alternatives as they look to salvage something from a bruising tour.
Changes were unavoidable after England’s batting failed again in Adelaide. Ollie Pope, dismissed for 3 and 17 and without a fifty in 16 Test innings against Australia, has been dropped, with Bethell promoted straight into the XI at No.3. England confirmed the move on Wednesday, signalling a shake-up driven by a chronic lack of first-innings runs across all three Tests.
There is further bad news with Jofra Archer ruled out for the rest of the series due to a side strain. Despite that, Brydon Carse retains his place after an expensive outing in Adelaide, while Josh Tongue keeps his spot following an impressive four-wicket second innings on debut in the third Test. Gus Atkinson returns after missing the previous match, with spinner Shoaib Bashir still overlooked.
Though the scoreline reads 3–0 and the Ashes were lost in just 11 days, England will be desperate to end the tour on a positive note — even if their options are running thin.
England Confirmed XI
Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Jacob Bethell, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (c), Jamie Smith (wk), Will Jacks, Gus Atkinson, Brydon Carse, Josh Tongue
Australia vs England (AUS vs ENG) Head to Head in Tests
Australia lead the overall head-to-head convincingly with 155 Test wins, while England have recorded 112 victories, with 97 matches ending in draws. The gap has grown further over the last decade, where Australia have claimed 17 wins compared to England’s seven, with four Tests drawn in that period.
Australia vs England (AUS vs ENG) Pitch Report, 4th Test - Ashes 2025
MCG curator Matt Page is targeting a repeat of last season’s well-balanced surface that produced a gripping five-day Test against India, leaving around 7mm of grass to ensure something for both batters and bowlers. Conditions will vary across the match, with a cool Boxing Day giving way to temperatures in the low 30s, while light showers are possible on the opening and final days.
Australia vs England (AUS vs ENG) Betting Odds for 4th Test, Ashes 2025-26
For the fourth Ashes Test of 2025, 1xBet have Australia firm favourites at 1.58, with England listed as clear underdogs at 3.1, while the draw is priced at 11.3.
Australia vs England Win Probability
Google’s prediction model backs Australia for the fourth Test, giving the hosts a 63% chance of victory. England are assigned a 29% win probability, while the likelihood of a draw is rated at 8%.
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