Three weeks into the 2026–27 NBA regular season, the MVP race is already taking shape, with Luka Dončić and Victor Wembanyama emerging as the leading contenders. Although Wembanyama entered the season as the preseason favorite, Dončić has moved ahead at several major sportsbooks following a remarkable scoring start with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the two-time defending MVP, remains within reach, while Jayson Tatum and Nikola Jokić offer longer-priced alternatives in the early futures market.
This NBA MVP odds update examines the betting landscape after three weeks and compares the leading candidates. Injury concerns, team performance, voting narratives, and the NBA's 65-game eligibility requirement could all influence the market before the award is decided in April.
2026–27 NBA MVP Odds After Three Weeks
Luka Dončić and Victor Wembanyama currently occupy the top positions on the MVP betting board. Their odds remain close, although Dončić has a slight advantage at several sportsbooks.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sits third, followed by Tatum and Jokić. The wider market also includes Giannis Antetokounmpo and Tyrese Maxey.
Rank | Player | Team | MVP Odds |
1 | Luka Dončić | Los Angeles Lakers | +155 to +200 |
2 | Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | +165 to +220 |
3 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Oklahoma City Thunder | +400 to +600 |
4 | Jayson Tatum | Boston Celtics | +1000 to +1200 |
5 | Nikola Jokić | Denver Nuggets | +900 to +1400 |
6 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Miami Heat | +2500 to +3000 |
7 | Tyrese Maxey | Philadelphia 76ers | +3000 to +4000 |
The gap between the leading candidates and the rest of the field makes this an interesting early-season market. However, three weeks represent only a small portion of an 82-game schedule, leaving considerable room for changes in form, injuries, and team standings.
Top Five NBA MVP Contenders: Player-by-Player Analysis
1. Luka Dončić (+155 to +200): The Early Favorite
Dončić has made an outstanding start to his Lakers career as the team's primary offensive option following LeBron James' departure from Los Angeles.
Through his first 10 appearances, he is averaging 39.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 7.9 assists, shooting 49.8% from the field and 40.7% from three-point range. His production has helped the Lakers reach a 10–2 record and seven consecutive victories.
Why he could win: Dončić has already recorded multiple 50-point performances and leads Basketball-Reference's statistical MVP Award Tracker. His individual numbers and the Lakers' strong start give him a compelling case. Despite five First-Team All-NBA selections, he has never finished higher than third in MVP voting.
The risk: Maintaining a scoring average close to 40 points over an entire season would be demanding. He has also missed two early games, making his availability an important consideration under the 65-game eligibility rule.
2. Victor Wembanyama (+165 to +220): The Two-Way Threat
Wembanyama has matched Dončić's early-season impact with a combination of scoring, rebounding, and elite rim protection.
The Spurs have started 9–2, while their French center is averaging 30.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 4.4 blocks per game. His defensive production also makes him the leading candidate for Defensive Player of the Year.
Why he could win: Wembanyama has a realistic opportunity to become one of the few players to win MVP and DPOY in the same season. Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, and Giannis Antetokounmpo are the three players identified with that achievement.
The risk: San Antonio's comfortable victories have limited Wembanyama to approximately 29.8 minutes per game. While his efficiency remains impressive, reduced playing time could affect his cumulative statistics and visibility in close games.
3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+400 to +600): Chasing a Historic Three-Peat
Gilgeous-Alexander enters the campaign as the two-time defending MVP after winning the award in 2024–25 and 2025–26.
Oklahoma City has dealt with injuries to three key starters, but SGA continues to deliver, averaging 29.9 points and more than five assists per game.
Why he could win: His scoring efficiency, two-way consistency, and experience leading a successful Thunder team remain major advantages. If Oklahoma City returns to full strength and secures another top Western Conference seed, his candidacy will become even stronger.
The risk: Voter fatigue could become a significant obstacle. No player has won three consecutive MVP awards since Larry Bird completed his three-year run in 1986.
4. Jayson Tatum (+1000 to +1200): An Eastern Conference Value Option
Boston's offseason trade sending Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia has left Tatum as the undisputed centerpiece of the Celtics.
Fully healthy following his Achilles recovery, Tatum has helped Boston reach a 9–2 record. He is averaging 26.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, and a career-best 7.4 assists per game.
His expanded playmaking responsibilities strengthen his MVP case beyond scoring alone. At +1000 to +1200, he also offers a longer price than the leading Western Conference contenders.
5. Nikola Jokić (+900 to +1400): A Potential Buy-Low Candidate
Three-time MVP Jokić has started more quietly than usual, averaging 22.9 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 9.1 assists.
His scoring numbers are below his typical 26–29-point range, but his all-around production remains valuable. Jokić has finished first or second in MVP voting for six consecutive seasons, demonstrating his consistency at the highest level.
At prices reaching +1400, he could attract bettors expecting Denver to improve and challenge for a top-three Western Conference seed.
Three Factors That Could Decide the 2026–27 MVP Race
Early-season statistics provide a useful starting point, but MVP futures depend on more than individual production.
1. The NBA's 65-Game Eligibility Rule
The NBA's eligibility requirements make availability one of the most important considerations in MVP betting.
Generally, players must appear in at least 65 regular-season games, playing at least 20 minutes in each qualifying appearance. Limited exceptions apply, including provisions for certain 15–19-minute appearances and extraordinary circumstances.
This creates an obvious risk for early favorites. A significant injury or repeated absences could jeopardize a player's eligibility, regardless of how impressive his statistics have been.
2. Team Record and Conference Seeding
Individual performances matter, but team success has traditionally played a major role in MVP voting.
Players leading first-, second-, or third-seeded teams generally have stronger cases than stars carrying teams outside the playoff picture. A high-scoring season becomes less persuasive if the player's team struggles to compete.
This factor particularly benefits Dončić, Wembanyama, and Gilgeous-Alexander if their teams maintain their current winning form.
3. Voter Fatigue and Award Narratives
MVP voting also involves historical context and the perception of a player's season.
First-time winners such as Dončić and Wembanyama could benefit if their statistical performances remain comparable to those of established winners. Meanwhile, Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić may need particularly convincing seasons to secure another trophy.
Narratives cannot guarantee an outcome, but they can influence how voters evaluate closely matched candidates.
Final Verdict: Where Is the Value in the NBA MVP Odds?
After three weeks, Luka Dončić and Victor Wembanyama have established themselves as the leading candidates for the 2026–27 NBA MVP award.
Dončić currently has the stronger offensive case, averaging 39.3 points while leading the Lakers to a 10–2 start. Wembanyama offers a different route to the award through elite scoring, rebounding, and defensive dominance.
For bettors looking beyond the favorites, Jayson Tatum (+1000 to +1200) stands out as an interesting alternative following Boston's strong start. Nikola Jokić (+900 to +1400) also deserves attention if his scoring numbers improve and Denver climbs the Western Conference standings.
